The High Level Forum 2009 on China Open Economy was held On December 27 in the University of International Business and Economics. Theme of the Forum is “Stabilizing external demand and promoting sustainable development of open economy”. More than 100 representatives attended the forum. Zhong Shan, Vice Minister of Commerce, attended the forum and delivered a keynote speech as follows:

The High Level Forum 2009 on China Open Economy is held on the occasion of ringing in the New Year and ringing out the old. In my opinion, it is very meaningful for the University of International Business and Economics to have invited so many prestigious experts and scholars for discussing issues concerning the stabilization of external demand and promotion of the sustainable development of open economy. I’d like to extend, on behalf of the Ministry of Commerce, warmest congratulations, and wish this Forum a complete success.

I’d like also to take this opportunity and to briefly introduce China’s foreign trade situation in 2009 and main goals and missions for developing foreign trade in 2010. Meanwhile, I’d like also to discuss with you all the key issues in mid-term and long-term development of foreign trade.

1. Overview of China’s foreign trade in 2009

It is the most difficult year, and also a year of achievements in foreign trade.

Why it is the most difficult year? The main reason is the international financial crisis in which the open economy and foreign trade suffer the most. This can be seen in two aspects: One is the seriously insufficient international demand. The foreign trade is down by 29 percent in January, by 25 percent in the first quarter, and by 23 percent by June. And the margin is narrowing since July. It is predicted that export will be down by about 16 percent by the end of 2009. The other aspect is the revival of trade protectionism. This year China are suffering from anti-dumping, anti-subsidy and safeguard measures, a loss of about 12 billion U.S. dollars, which is twice that of last year. And the number of cases is also doubled. Such a trend still continues.

Why it is a year in which we’ve made achievements? Firstly, we completed the task of maintaining market and guaranteeing shares. The goals of our foreign trade set by the State Council are to stabilize external demand, maintain market share. Such decisions by the State Council, in my opinion, are realistic and very correct. Now, we can declare that we have realized the goals. Last year, the volume of China’s foreign trade was 8.86 percent of the total volume of the world trade. And this year, it is expected to be over 9 percent, by which China will probably surpass Germany as the largest exporter in 2009. Secondly, the trade structure has been further optimized, and commodity quality and export benefits have been further improved. Thirdly, we’ve made achievements in tackling trade frictions. Under the direct leadership of CPC Central Committee and the State Council and with hard efforts of us all, we solved lots of trade frictions including Special Safeguard Measures and other trade remedy measures.

To put it in a nutshell, our achievements in foreign trade were hard-won. They should be attributed to the correct leadership of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, as well as joint efforts of commercial departments at various levels, enterprises and other relevant departments all over the country.

In the recent Central Economic Work Conference, it was pointed out that the goals for foreign trade were to maintain market share, adjust trade structure and promote trade balance. We predicted that the foreign trade situation would be more complex and that tasks for 2010 would be more difficult to complete.

The more complex situation embodies four aspects. Firstly, the complexity of the international economic situation determines that the economic recovery is a long and winding process. Secondly, uncertainties of international demand still exist. Thirdly, it is particularly important for our foreign trade policies to be consistent. Fourthly, the exchange rate of RMB faces more pressure to keep stable.

The tasks are more difficult to complete because we not only need to maintain our market share, but also need to adjust the trade structure and promote trade balance. Structure adjustment and balance promotion are not only focus of work in 2010, but also our goal in the long run. Undoubtedly, China is now a large trade country. Even though it ranks second but not first, it is still a large trade country. However, we are large but not strong. Why? Because our development is unbalanced and the trade structure needs to be adjusted. So we need to double our efforts in adjusting the foreign trade structure, transforming the growth mode and promote balanced trade development.

As far as I can see, as long as there’s no major change in the situation at home and abroad, it is absolutely possible to realize growth of China’s foreign trade and achieve the goal of maintaining the market.

3. Key Issues in Mid-term and Long-term Foreign Trade Development that need to be studied

The world economy, politics, culture and society will change greatly after the financial crisis. How to adapt to new changes and face new challenges is a key research object for the development of China’s foreign trade.

Firstly, strategic role of foreign trade development is worth studying. We need to study the roles of foreign trade in promoting national economic growth, social stability and harmony and our international status, etc.

Secondly, strategic goals and development modes of foreign trade also need to be deeply studied. Different development phases need different strategic goals and development modes. Our pioneers have spent 30 years to realize the hard-won transformation from a small foreign trade country to a large one. Their achievements should be highly appreciated and fully recognized. Then, what are our strategic goals for the future development of China’s foreign trade? That is to constantly consolidate the position of being a large trade country and to strengthen our country by developing foreign trade.

Thirdly, in order to reach the strategic goal of a strong foreign trade country, trade structure must be adjusted and development mode must be changed so as to improve quality of exported commodities on the basis of increase of quantities. Besides, we also need to improve the international competency of enterprises and coordination of foreign trade development and enhance our ability in making rules for international trade, etc. In this way, we also need to study strategic support and measures for foreign trade development.

To sum up, to realize the strategic goal of transforming China from a large foreign trade country into a strong one, we must further emancipate the mind, reform and innovate, intensify scientific planning and continue to work hard. I believe that under the strong leadership of CPC Central Committee and the State Council, with Scientific Outlook on Development as our guidelines and through our unswerving efforts, we will surely make our goal come true.

(All information published on this website is authentic in Chinese. English is provided for reference only.)